Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Orlando City SC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Orlando City SC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Orlando City SC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Orlando City SC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 92% |
| Both Teams to Score | 76% |
| San Jose Earthquakes O/U 0.5 | 76% |
| O/U 3.5 | 69% |
| Orlando City SC O/U 2.5 | 60% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 55% |
| Orlando City SC (-1.5) | 52% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| San Jose Earthquakes 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Jose Earthquakes 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Orlando City SC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Orlando City SC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 4.5 | 41% |
| San Jose Earthquakes O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Orlando City SC (-2.5) | 25% |
| O/U 5.5 | 19% |
| San Jose Earthquakes O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5) | 3% |
| San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5) | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| San Jose Earthquakes 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| San Jose Earthquakes 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
Market context
San Jose Earthquakes vs Orlando City SC in MLS has already been played, with Orlando winning 1-0 at PayPal Park after a late Jack Lynn goal in the 89th minute.[2] That result is useful context for reading a **3% YES** on the “More Markets” contract: the crowd is effectively pricing in a very specific, low-frequency outcome tied to an additional market being offered around a fixture that has already produced a tight, low-scoring game.[2][3]
Historically, these “more markets” contracts tend to clear only when the underlying match generates unusual extra pricing, news flow, or late trading interest rather than from ordinary pre-match sentiment. Fox Sports listed Orlando as the market favourite before kick-off, with the total set at 3.5 goals, which fits a game profile where the base expectation was for a regulated, mainstream MLS betting board rather than a highly expanded menu of derivative markets.[3] In that setting, a single additional market being launched late would usually need a catalyst beyond standard team strength or venue effects.
For traders, the key watchpoints are any post-match corrections, lineup or injury confirmations, and whether the market operator added the contract because of a specific broadcast, props package, or in-play menu expansion. San Jose’s own match report confirms the result and late decisive goal, but it does not point to coaching change or major absence news, so the next price move would more likely come from platform-side announcements or any late team news feeding into market availability.[2]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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