Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
79% | 21% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
79% | 21% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 221.5 | 79% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 75% |
| O/U 224.5 | 74% |
| O/U 227.5 | 70% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 57.5 | 69% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 56.5 | 65% |
| O/U 230.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 62% |
| Spread -1.5 | 60% |
| O/U 232.5 | 60% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 59.5 | 60% |
| Spread -2.5 | 57% |
| O/U 233.5 | 57% |
| O/U 234.5 | 56% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 58.5 | 56% |
| Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| O/U 235.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 5.5 | 53% |
| Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| O/U 236.5 | 51% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 61.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 108.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 106.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 109.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 110.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 107.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 113.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 114.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 115.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 111.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 112.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 118.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 119.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 116.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 120.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 117.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 123.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 124.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 121.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 122.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 128.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 126.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 129.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 130.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| O/U 237.5 | 49% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Jaylen Wells: Assists O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 49% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 39.5 | 48% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| O/U 238.5 | 46% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 45% |
| Spread -6.5 | 44% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 14.5 | 44% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 60.5 | 44% |
| O/U 240.5 | 43% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 4.5 | 43% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 19.5 | 41% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 63.5 | 41% |
| Spread -7.5 | 40% |
| 1H Moneyline | 40% |
| Zach Edey: Assists O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| Grizzlies vs. Warriors | 39% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 4.5 | 38% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 9.5 | 38% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 38% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Zach Edey: Assists O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| O/U 243.5 | 36% |
| Al Horford: Assists O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 4.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 62.5 | 36% |
| Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 35% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 35% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 35% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 4.5 | 34% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 14.5 | 33% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 19.5 | 33% |
| Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 32% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 65.5 | 32% |
| Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 31% |
| Jerami Grant: Assists O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 34.5 | 30% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 30% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Jerami Grant: Assists O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 14.5 | 29% |
| O/U 246.5 | 28% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 24.5 | 28% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 21.5 | 28% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 6.5 | 28% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 28% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 28% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 28% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Spread -12.5 | 27% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 16.5 | 27% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 27% |
| Jaylen Wells: Assists O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 64.5 | 27% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 11.5 | 26% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| O/U 249.5 | 25% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 25% |
| Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 25% |
| 1H O/U 129.5 | 25% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 24% |
| Al Horford: Assists O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 4.5 | 23% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 23% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 9.5 | 22% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 24.5 | 22% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 22% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 7.5 | 22% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Spread -15.5 | 20% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 20% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 20% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 9.5 | 18% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 29.5 | 17% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 17% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 7.5 | 16% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 14% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| Spread -18.5 | 13% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 34.5 | 13% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 29.5 | 11% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 11% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 14.5 | 8% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 14.5 | 7% |
Market context
Grizzlies vs. Warriors. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 39% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-24T02:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $487K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Grizzlies vs. Warriors. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
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