Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Club Alianza Atlético (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Club Alianza Atlético O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Club Alianza Atlético O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Club Alianza Atlético O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| CD Los Chankas O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Club Alianza Atlético 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Club Alianza Atlético 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Club Alianza Atlético 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CD Los Chankas 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CD Los Chankas (-1.5) | 0% |
| Club Alianza Atlético (-2.5) | 0% |
| CD Los Chankas (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CD Los Chankas O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CD Los Chankas O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Club Alianza Atlético 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CD Los Chankas 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CD Los Chankas 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CD Los Chankas 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Alianza Atlético will host CD Los Chankas in Peru's Liga 1 on 24 July, with settlement contingent on whether additional betting markets materialise for the fixture. The 100% implied probability suggests near-certainty that supplementary wagering options will be offered, though the specific markets remain unspecified at present.
Historical precedent in Peruvian football suggests that Liga 1 matches involving mid-table and lower-ranked clubs typically generate limited ancillary market depth compared to fixtures involving the traditional "big five" sides. Alianza Atlético, based in Pucallpa, has occupied mid-table positions in recent seasons, whilst Los Chankas—a Andean regional club—rarely commands the betting infrastructure that Lima-based rivals attract. Previous matches between comparable-tier opponents have occasionally failed to spawn secondary markets despite initial fixture confirmation, particularly when kickoff times or squad availability remained uncertain until late in the week.
Traders should monitor official Liga 1 scheduling confirmations and any last-minute venue or date changes, which would affect market availability. Coaching staffing announcements or significant injury disclosures in the 48 hours before kickoff can influence whether bookmakers commit resources to secondary markets. Peruvian sports media outlets including *Depor* and *El Comercio* typically report squad news by midweek; absence of such coverage may signal reduced commercial interest in the fixture. The settlement window closes at 20:00 UTC on match day, leaving minimal time for market expansion after the fixture begins.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Club Alianza Atlético vs. CD Los Chankas - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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