Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| CD Los Chankas | 100% |
| Draw | 0% |
| Sport Boys Association | 0% |
Market context
CD Los Chankas defeated Sport Boys Association 1–0 in their Peru Liga 1 Clausura encounter on Sunday, 19 July 2026, at Estadio Los Chankas in Andahuaylas[2][4]. The result confirms the 100% YES crowd-implied probability that Los Chankas secured the win, aligning with pre-match bookmaker favouritism that priced them at -104 odds and a 51% victory prospect[6]. Historical head-to-head data and algorithmic previews previously flagged a 1–0 correct score as a 19% probability outcome, which materialised precisely[3].
Traders should note that this fixture occurred within the Clausura phase of Liga 1, where home advantage at Estadio Los Chankas has been a consistent catalyst for Chankas’ form. No coaching changes or key absences were reported ahead of the match, and both teams entered with identical 0–0–0 records, suggesting the result stemmed from tactical execution rather than external disruptions[1][2]. The absence of a draw or Sport Boys win eliminates ambiguity, making the settlement straightforward.
With the settlement window closing on 2026-07-19T16:00:00Z and the match already concluded, the outcome is fixed. The 1–0 scoreline validates pre-game predictions emphasising an under-2.5 goals total and a “no both teams to score” outcome, both supported by 55% and 57% probabilities respectively[3]. No further announcements or schedule dependencies affect this market, as the event has passed and the result is confirmed across multiple live-score platforms[2][5].
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $93K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for CD Los Chankas vs. Sport Boys Association. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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