Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Pogon Szczecin (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Pogon Szczecin O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Pogon Szczecin O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Pogon Szczecin 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Pogon Szczecin 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| KS Cracovia Krakow (-1.5) | 0% |
| KS Cracovia Krakow (-2.5) | 0% |
| Pogon Szczecin (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| KS Cracovia Krakow O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| KS Cracovia Krakow O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| KS Cracovia Krakow O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Pogon Szczecin O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| KS Cracovia Krakow 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| KS Cracovia Krakow 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Pogon Szczecin 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Pogon Szczecin 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| KS Cracovia Krakow 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| KS Cracovia Krakow 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Cracovia host Pogoń Szczecin in the Ekstraklasa meeting that sits behind this “More Markets” pool, with the market currently pricing no extra outcomes at all. The match picture from recent form points to a tight, low-scoring contest: Cracovia drew 0-0 away at Lech Poznań in their most recent league outing, while Pogoń lost 1-0 at home to Legia Warsaw the day before[3][6].
Historically, this pairing has not been one-way. The head-to-head record is broadly balanced, with Pogoń holding a slight edge overall in longer-run totals, but recent meetings have often been close enough to land in draw territory, including a 1-1 game in April 2026[5][9][17]. That matters for a 0% YES price: if the market is asking for an unusually specific auxiliary outcome, recent comparable cases suggest these teams have often produced narrow margins rather than clearly lopsided scripts[9][18].
For traders, the main catalysts are late team news and any change to the starting line-ups, especially if either side is forced into rotation after a short turnaround from the previous league round[3][6]. Sofascore and Flashscore list live line-up and match-centre coverage for this fixture, but the search results do not surface a clear beat-reporter injury report or coaching bulletin, so the key dependency is whether either club confirms absences close to kick-off[1][2]. If a major attacker is ruled out, that would reinforce the draw-heavy, low-event profile already implied by recent scorelines[3][18].
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for KS Cracovia Krakow vs. Pogon Szczecin - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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