Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| St Mirren FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| St Mirren FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| St Mirren FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| St Mirren FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| St Mirren FC (-1.5) | 99% |
| Falkirk FC O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| St Mirren FC O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| St Mirren FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Falkirk FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Falkirk FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| St Mirren FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Falkirk FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Falkirk FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Falkirk FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Falkirk FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| St Mirren FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Falkirk FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Falkirk FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Falkirk FC and St Mirren FC meet with the market attached to the game’s *more markets* menu, which usually means traders are pricing uncertainty around the wider match environment rather than just the winner. The crowd-implied 0% YES suggests there is little public expectation of an outlier event, so the key question is whether pre-match information shifts the set-up enough to widen the available market paths before kick-off.
Historically, this fixture has not been one-way. Across recent head-to-head records, Falkirk have had the stronger edge overall, with 8 wins in the last 14 meetings and 11 wins in 31 matches since 2004, while St Mirren have been competitive enough to keep the series reasonably balanced.[1][2][3] That profile matters because older H2H data points to games that can swing on small squad differences rather than on a fixed dominance pattern, so any late team news can move ancillary markets more than the headline result market.[1][2][14]
The main catalysts to watch are late team sheets, injury updates, and whether either side makes changes after a short summer build-up. ESPN lists the fixture for 1 August 2026 and the current match page is live, while recent results data show Falkirk and St Mirren have already met in the current league cycle, including a 2-1 St Mirren win at Falkirk and a 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture.[9] If either club confirms absences in defence or midfield, or rotates heavily from those recent line-ups, that could affect totals, cards, and player-prop-style markets more than the outright result.[9][10][11]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Falkirk FC vs. St Mirren FC - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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