Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| IK Sirius (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| IF Elfsborg O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| IK Sirius O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| IK Sirius O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| IK Sirius O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| IF Elfsborg 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| IK Sirius 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| IK Sirius 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| IF Elfsborg (-1.5) | 0% |
| IF Elfsborg (-2.5) | 0% |
| IK Sirius (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| IF Elfsborg O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| IF Elfsborg O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| IF Elfsborg 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| IF Elfsborg 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| IK Sirius 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| IK Sirius 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| IF Elfsborg 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Allsvenskan fixture between IF Elfsborg and IK Sirius at Borås Arena concluded as a 0–0 draw on 19 July 2026, nullifying any expectation of goals or secondary market outcomes tied to scoring events [2]. With the crowd-implied probability for the “More Markets” proposition sitting at 0% YES, the result aligns with the defensive rigidity both sides displayed, particularly Sirius’s league-leading record of 10 wins and zero losses prior to this match [1].
Historically, encounters between these clubs have been volatile, with a previous full-time result ending 1–3 and another fixture in April 2025 producing a 4–3 scoreline, suggesting that low-probability outcomes can materialise when form shifts [3][5]. However, the current 0% pricing reflects the immediate reality of a goalless stalemate, a pattern consistent with Sirius’s recent defensive discipline and Elfsborg’s mid-table inconsistency (4–6–3) [1].
Traders should monitor post-match squad reports for injury updates or coaching adjustments, as Sirius’s unbeaten run may prompt tactical conservatism in future fixtures, while Elfsborg’s manager could face pressure to alter their attacking approach [1]. No new coaching changes or key absences were announced ahead of the game, and the settlement window closes shortly after the match, leaving little room for late catalysts to alter the outcome [2].
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for IF Elfsborg vs. IK Sirius - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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