Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
20% | 80% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
20% | 80% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Any Other Score | 20% |
| BK Hacken 1 - 1 AIK | 11% |
| BK Hacken 2 - 1 AIK | 10% |
| BK Hacken 2 - 0 AIK | 7% |
| BK Hacken 1 - 2 AIK | 7% |
| BK Hacken 2 - 2 AIK | 7% |
| BK Hacken 3 - 1 AIK | 7% |
| BK Hacken 1 - 0 AIK | 6% |
| BK Hacken 3 - 2 AIK | 5% |
| BK Hacken 0 - 1 AIK | 4% |
| BK Hacken 3 - 0 AIK | 4% |
| BK Hacken 0 - 0 AIK | 3% |
| BK Hacken 0 - 2 AIK | 3% |
| BK Hacken 1 - 3 AIK | 3% |
| BK Hacken 2 - 3 AIK | 3% |
| BK Hacken 3 - 3 AIK | 2% |
| BK Hacken 0 - 3 AIK | 1% |
Market context
BK Hacken travel to face AIK in the Allsvenskan on 27 July 2026, with the market pricing an exact-score outcome at just 3% probability. The settlement window closes at 17:00 UTC on match day, capturing only the 90-minute regulation result plus stoppage time.
Exact-score markets in football typically reflect the combinatorial difficulty of predicting both teams' goal tallies simultaneously. Historical data from Allsvenskan seasons shows that any single scoreline occurs in roughly 3–5% of matches, depending on the teams' attacking and defensive profiles. AIK have historically been the stronger side in this fixture, though recent form shifts can substantially alter expected output. The 3% implied probability suggests traders are pricing this as a relatively unlikely outcome, which aligns with baseline rates for individual scorelines in Swedish top-flight football.
Recent team news will be critical. Hacken's squad composition, injury status, and any managerial adjustments made in the weeks before 27 July will shape their attacking threat and defensive solidity. Similarly, AIK's availability of key players—particularly in midfield and attack—directly influences their goal-scoring capacity. Local Swedish football reporters covering Allsvenskan will publish team news and tactical previews in the days preceding the match. Traders should monitor official club announcements regarding suspensions, injuries, or unexpected lineup changes, as these can shift expected goal distributions meaningfully. Weather conditions on match day may also affect play style and scoring patterns.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for BK Hacken vs. AIK - Exact Score. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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