Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Kalmar FF O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Kalmar FF O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Malmo FF O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Malmo FF O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Kalmar FF 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Kalmar FF 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Malmo FF 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Malmo FF 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Kalmar FF (-1.5) | 0% |
| Malmo FF (-1.5) | 0% |
| Kalmar FF (-2.5) | 0% |
| Malmo FF (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Kalmar FF O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Malmo FF O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Malmo FF 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Kalmar FF 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Kalmar FF 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Malmo FF 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Kalmar FF and Malmö FF played out a 2–2 draw in their Allsvenskan fixture on 20 July 2026 at Guldfageln Arena, a result that already concluded the match the market references [2][4]. With the game finished and the outcome fixed, the 0% YES probability for any additional market tied to this fixture reflects the absence of unresolved conditions; prediction markets on completed games typically collapse to zero once the event settles, as no future catalyst can alter the result [2].
Historically, similar “more markets” propositions on Allsvenskan matches that have already been played show near-identical pricing behaviour: once the final score is confirmed, ancillary bets (such as total goals, player props, or half-time outcomes) lose all speculative value and trade at 0% unless the market was mis-specified [4]. Comparable cases from recent Swedish league seasons confirm that post-match settlement windows do not reopen for re-trading, making the current probability a mechanical reflection of the game’s closure rather than a forecast of team performance.
Traders should monitor the official settlement announcement from the exchange, which will confirm the market’s closure and final payout status, as no further announcements, squad updates, or scheduling dependencies can influence a completed fixture [1]. The only relevant catalyst is the exchange’s administrative confirmation that the event has settled, after which the market will be removed from active trading.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Kalmar FF vs. Malmo FF - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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