Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Orgryte IS (-1.5) | 0% |
| Djurgardens IF (-1.5) | 0% |
| Orgryte IS (-2.5) | 0% |
| Djurgardens IF (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Orgryte IS O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Orgryte IS O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Orgryte IS O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Djurgardens IF O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Djurgardens IF O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Djurgardens IF O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Orgryte IS 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Orgryte IS 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Djurgardens IF 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Djurgardens IF 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Orgryte IS 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Orgryte IS 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Djurgardens IF 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Djurgardens IF 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Örgryte IS and Djurgardens IF met at Gamla Ullevi on 20 July 2026 in an Allsvenskan fixture that ended 0–0, a result that directly contradicts the pre-match expectation of a Djurgardens victory. Despite bookmakers pricing Djurgardens as heavy favourites at 1.39 and projecting a 1–3 win, the match produced no goals, leaving the “YES” outcome for any market requiring a Djurgardens win or over 2.5 goals at zero probability post-settlement[1][3].
Historically, when Djurgardens enter as favourites with odds below 1.40 in Allsvenskan, they win roughly 58% of such fixtures, but defensive collapses or stalemates against porous hosts like Örgryte have occurred in 29% of draw scenarios pre-match, often nullifying high-probability bets[4][6]. The current 0% YES probability reflects the actual 0–0 outcome, aligning with rare cases where strong away form failed to translate into goals despite dominant pre-match metrics.
Traders should monitor official Allsvenskan match reports and line-up confirmations for future fixtures involving these sides, as Djurgardens’ away record and attacking threat—particularly striker Lien’s form—remain key catalysts for goal markets[1][8]. Any injury updates or coaching adjustments ahead of their next league meeting on 25 October 2026 will influence whether the 0–0 anomaly repeats or Djurgardens’ superior form resumes[7].
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Orgryte IS vs. Djurgardens IF - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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