Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| PFK Levski Sofia O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS O/U 0.5 | 65% |
| O/U 1.5 | 64% |
| PFK Levski Sofia O/U 2.5 | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 51% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| PFK Levski Sofia O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Both Teams to Score | 37% |
| PFK Levski Sofia (-1.5) | 30% |
| O/U 2.5 | 27% |
| PFK Levski Sofia (-2.5) | 8% |
| O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS O/U 1.5 | 6% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS O/U 2.5 | 2% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS (-1.5) | 1% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS (-2.5) | 1% |
| O/U 4.5 | 1% |
| O/U 5.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
PFK Levski Sofia’s meeting with Universitatea Craiova in the Champions League qualifying round is a first-leg style market where the result profile is often tighter than the names suggest, with early-round ties typically shaped by caution, set-piece margins and whether the away side can avoid an open game. The current 30% YES price for “more markets” sits in a range that implies an upset or a less straightforward contest is possible, but not the base case, which is consistent with the sort of low-scoring, one-goal swing history these fixtures usually produce. FootyStats’ head-to-head and xG snapshots show the two clubs’ underlying numbers are closely matched, which supports reading this as a finely balanced tie rather than a clear mismatch.[1]
For traders, the main catalysts are squad and bench news before kick-off, because qualifying ties can move sharply on whether either side rests starters, carries a late fitness doubt, or makes a coaching-driven tactical adjustment. Sky Sports lists the fixture for 6:30pm on Wednesday 22 July 2026, which puts the market in the window where confirmed line-ups and any late absence are the most important inputs.[2] If either club is missing a first-choice centre-forward, defensive organiser or goalkeeper, that would matter more than broader form trends, since first-leg Champions League qualifiers are often decided by who manages the risk better over 90 minutes.[1][2]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for PFK Levski Sofia vs. Universitatea Craiova CS - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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