Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
71% | 29% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
71% | 29% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 71% |
| Draw | 21% |
| Heart of Midlothian FC | 8% |
Market context
Heart of Midlothian’s trip to Benfica comes after a first-leg collapse that left the Portuguese side well placed in the tie, with Benfica winning 6-1 at the Estádio da Luz and the aggregate score already decisive by the time this market settles.[2][9][16] That result is consistent with the broader read on the matchup: Benfica’s home control and squad depth have been enough to turn qualifying ties into one-sided affairs, while Hearts have been carrying recent defensive problems and a weaker away record into the game.[6][13][18]
For traders, the main catalysts are whether either club rotates heavily, whether Benfica preserve key attacking pieces, and whether Hearts can improve their availability picture before kick-off. FotMob listed no Benfica absentees for the first leg, but Hearts were missing Christian Borchgrevink, Stephen Kingsley, Craig Halkett and Eduardo Ageu, which would matter again if those injuries persist.[3] The scoreline also matters for incentives: with Hearts needing a major turnaround and Benfica already having a large cushion, late team-sheet changes and any confirmation of rest after the league schedule should be the sharpest market drivers.[2][4][11]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $50K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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