Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Beşiktaş JK | 100% |
| FC Hradec Králové | 0% |
| Draw | 0% |
Market context
FC Hradec Králové host Beşiktaş JK in the first leg of this UEFA Europa League qualifier at Malsovická aréna, with kick-off listed for 17:00 UTC. The market’s 0% YES price is an extreme read on a tie that still has to be resolved on the pitch, but it does reflect a sizeable gap in pedigree: this is the first competitive meeting between the sides, and Hradec arrive from a narrow European path while Beşiktaş come in as the better-known, better-resourced club.[2][6][15]
Comparable cases in UEFA qualifying usually punish underdogs when the stronger side brings more attacking depth and the tie is decided over two legs. Hradec’s recent route included a 3:1 win over Tromsø in the second leg of their previous round, which shows they can score at this level, but it does not erase the broader expectation that they will spend more time defending here.[10][9] Beşiktaş have already been through tougher-looking European opposition in this campaign, and that tends to support a low YES probability unless the Czech side can force an error or make the home leg unusually tight.[8]
For traders, the main catalysts are the confirmed line-ups, any late injury news, and whether Hradec can field the same core that beat Tromsø. UEFA’s line-up page already shows David Horejš as the home coach and Patrik Vízek among the listed players, while FotMob has flagged Tomáš Petrášek as unavailable for Hradec; if that absence holds, it narrows their margin against a larger club.[1][15] Beşiktaş line-up confirmation matters too, because if they name a full-strength attacking side, the market is likely to keep leaning away from a home upset.[1][15]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $254K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for FC Hradec Králové vs. Beşiktaş JK. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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