Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| PFK CSKA Sofia (-1.5) | 100% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia (-2.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv (-1.5) | 0% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Maccabi Tel Aviv meet PFK CSKA Sofia in the first leg of their Europa League qualifying tie, with the match staged on neutral ground at Batumi’s Adjarabet Arena rather than in Tel Aviv. The crowd-implied **0% YES** looks inconsistent with the matchup itself: Maccabi were listed as a narrow favourite in pre-match market pricing, and independent previews framed the tie as one where the Israeli side’s attacking edge is balanced by the loss of normal home advantage.[2][4][16]
The historical frame is limited because this is the first competitive meeting between the clubs, so traders have to lean on comparable European qualifiers rather than head-to-head data.[4][14] Maccabi’s recent European results have been functional rather than explosive, including a 1-0 qualifying win over Sheriff, while CSKA Sofia advanced from their prior round on penalties after a 0-0 draw with Qarabağ, a result that underlined their capacity to keep games tight.[15][4] That combination usually points towards a low-scoring first leg, where draw or narrow one-goal outcomes carry more weight than a free-scoring match script.[4][15]
The key catalysts are team news and the usual qualifier dependencies: confirmed line-ups, any late absences, and whether Maccabi can translate their stronger recent attacking numbers into chances against a compact CSKA shape.[4][10] Because the game is on a neutral pitch, even small changes in availability or approach matter more than they would in a normal home fixture.[4][2] UEFA’s match page and live line-up postings are the main official sources to watch closest to kick-off, while the BBC live listing indicates the contest is being tracked as part of a live Europa League slate.[6][3]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. PFK CSKA Sofia - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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