Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Team to Advance | 100% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv (-1.5) | 52% |
| FC Sheriff Tiraspol O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| FC Sheriff Tiraspol 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| FC Sheriff Tiraspol O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score | 44% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv O/U 2.5 | 43% |
| O/U 1.5 | 40% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv (-2.5) | 27% |
| FC Sheriff Tiraspol O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| FC Sheriff Tiraspol 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| FC Sheriff Tiraspol (-1.5) | 6% |
| O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| FC Sheriff Tiraspol (-2.5) | 4% |
| O/U 4.5 | 3% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Sheriff Tiraspol 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Sheriff Tiraspol 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Maccabi Tel Aviv host FC Sheriff Tiraspol in the second leg of this Europa League qualifier with the tie already tilted heavily after Maccabi’s 5-0 win in Tiraspol last week.[1][2] That first-leg margin is the main reason the market sits only just above even money on **YES** for further “more markets” action: Sheriff now need an unusually open game to change the aggregate picture, while Maccabi have every incentive to control pace rather than chase another shootout.[2][10]
The historical frame also points towards a cautious read on the current 52% crowd-implied probability. Maccabi’s recent European run has included several high-scoring defeats against stronger opposition, but their qualifier in Moldova was a one-sided, multi-scorer performance that matches the type of match state that often produces broader market movement once one side is forced to chase.[3][13] Sheriff, by contrast, have already shown the vulnerability that comes with being stretched in transitions, and their first-leg indiscipline — five yellow cards — added to the sense that they were outplayed rather than merely unlucky.[2]
For traders, the key catalysts are whether Maccabi rotate after the 5-0 cushion, whether Sheriff alter shape to attack early, and any late team-news around attackers or defenders that changes the tempo of the game.[10][14] The fixture is listed for Batumi Arena, which matters because venue and scheduling can affect travel patterns, crowd profile and how aggressively the underdog starts.[9][14] If line-ups confirm a full-strength Maccabi side, the market’s lean towards additional scoring or ancillary match events becomes easier to justify; if Maccabi rest key forwards, that probability can soften quickly.[9][10]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Sheriff Tiraspol - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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