UFC Fight Night: Diego Ferreira vs. Billy Quarantillo (Lightweight, Main Card)

Platform comparison

Market context

Diego Ferreira and Billy Quarantillo are booked for a lightweight main-card bout at UFC Fight Night, with the market currently pricing the fight as a done deal at 100% yes. The fighter profiles point to a fairly even matchup on paper: Ferreira is 19-7 and has the stronger grappling and submission profile, while Quarantillo is 18-7 and lands more volume on the feet, with a higher significant-strike rate and more frequent takedown and submission attempts.[1][2][3]

The recent form line is more useful than the headline records. Both men arrive on two-fight losing streaks, with Ferreira coming off stoppage defeats to Grant Dawson and Alexander Hernandez and Quarantillo also dropping back-to-back fights, both by stoppage, against Youssef Zalal and Cub Swanson.[16][17] That history argues against treating a high implied probability as a signal of a one-sided edge; instead, it reflects that the bout has already been scheduled and is expected to go ahead, not that the result is foregone.

For traders, the main catalysts are confirmation that the bout remains on the UFC’s final card, plus any late change in medical clearance, weight-cut issues, or undercard reshuffling that could move it from a scheduled contest to a no-contest-style resolution. The settlement window ends a minute before the official cut-off, so the key dependency is whether the UFC still lists Ferreira v Quarantillo as active and whether the result is reported formally by the promotion after the event.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for UFC Fight Night: Diego Ferreira vs. Billy Quarantillo (Lightweight, Main Card). Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.