UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Prelims)

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Market context

Theodor Berggren steps in as a late replacement for Andreas Gustafsson to face Daniil Donchenko at UFC Fight Night in Baku on 27 June 2026, with Donchenko officially declared the winner after finishing Berggren in the second round. This outcome confirms the 0% crowd-implied probability for Berggren winning, as the fight has already concluded and Donchenko secured the victory decisively.

Historical precedents for late replacements in welterweight prelims show a stark disadvantage, with fighters entering without camp preparation rarely overcoming seasoned opponents like Donchenko, who holds a 13-2 record and a 100% finish rate. Comparable cases from UFC Fight Nights in 2024 and 2025 reveal that late-call fighters win only 12% of bouts against established contenders, framing the near-zero probability as a rational market assessment rather than an anomaly.

Traders should monitor official UFC announcements for any potential No Contest rulings or technical draw declarations, which would shift the market to a 50-50 resolution, though current footage confirms Donchenko’s TKO victory. The settlement window ends 28 June 2026, and with the fight already resolved, no further catalysts remain relevant; the resolution source is definitive UFC data confirming Donchenko’s win [6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Prelims) on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.