Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 29.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 31.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 90% |
| Match Winner | 62% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 60% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-2.5) vs Gentle Mates (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-2.5) vs Gentle Mates (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-6.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-9.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+9.5) | 10% |
| Map Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs Gentle Mates (+1.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-4.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-5.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-7.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+7.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-8.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+8.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-10.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+10.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 32.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 34.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-4.5) vs Gentle Mates (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-5.5) vs Gentle Mates (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-2.5) vs Gentle Mates (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C. This market refers to the Valorant Winners match between Gentle Mates and Nongshim RedForce in the Esports World Cup Group C, initially scheduled for July 5 at 9:45AM ET. This market will resolve to …
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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