Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-2.5) vs Team Envy (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-4.5) vs Team Envy (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-6.5) vs Team Envy (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-7.5) vs Team Envy (+7.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-3.5) vs Team Envy (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-5.5) vs Team Envy (+5.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-8.5) vs Team Envy (+8.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-2.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-2.5) vs Team Envy (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map Handicap: EG (-1.5) vs Team Envy (+1.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 49% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-2.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+2.5) | 45% |
| Map 2 Winner | 40% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 39% |
| Match Winner | 21% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-3.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-5.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-4.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: NV (-1.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-2.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to valorant: team envy vs evil geniuses (bo3) - vct americas stage 2 group alpha. This market refers to the Valorant match between Team Envy and Evil Geniuses in the VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha, initially scheduled for July 17 at 5:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Team E…
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Valorant: Team Envy vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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