Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: NV (-1.5) vs Sentinels (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 98% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-2.5) vs Sentinels (+2.5) | 91% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-2.5) vs Sentinels (+2.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-3.5) vs Sentinels (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-4.5) vs Sentinels (+4.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-6.5) vs Sentinels (+6.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-7.5) vs Sentinels (+7.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-5.5) vs Sentinels (+5.5) | 75% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-9.5) vs Sentinels (+9.5) | 55% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 55% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-2.5) vs Team Envy (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-10.5) vs Sentinels (+10.5) | 45% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 45% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 26% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-3.5) vs Sentinels (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-4.5) vs Sentinels (+4.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-3.5) vs Team Envy (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-4.5) vs Team Envy (+4.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-6.5) vs Sentinels (+6.5) | 9% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-5.5) vs Sentinels (+5.5) | 9% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: SEN (-1.5) vs Team Envy (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-2.5) vs Team Envy (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-2.5) vs Team Envy (+2.5) | 0% |
Market context
Team Envy face Sentinels in the upper bracket round two of the VCT Americas Stage 2 Play-In on 15 August 2026, with the winner advancing and the loser dropping to the lower bracket. The best-of-three match begins at 20:00 ET and must conclude by the settlement deadline of 5 August 16 if rescheduling extends beyond 29 August.
Sentinels have historically dominated this matchup, winning their last three encounters against Envy across 2025 and early 2026. However, recent roster adjustments and coaching transitions within both organisations complicate direct comparison. Envy brought in a new in-game leader during the off-season, fundamentally altering their mid-round execution, whilst Sentinels have relied on veteran consistency. The 100% implied probability suggests confidence in match completion rather than a decisive prediction on the outcome itself—cancellations or ties remain unlikely given both teams' playoff positioning and Riot's scheduling commitments.
Traders should monitor official VCT Americas announcements for any last-minute roster changes or illness affecting key players, particularly Sentinels' primary duelist, who missed two matches in Stage 1 due to injury. Envy's recent scrim results against top-four teams will provide meaningful context closer to match day. The settlement window's 14-day buffer accommodates potential postponements, though VCT has historically maintained tight scheduling during playoff phases. Any announcement regarding venue changes or technical issues should trigger immediate reassessment, as these have occasionally forced match rescheduling in prior seasons.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Valorant: Team Envy vs Sentinels (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Play-In. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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