Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
76% | 24% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
76% | 24% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 76% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: ONSIDE GAMING (-2.5) vs Team Secret (+2.5) | 66% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 62% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 62% |
| Match Winner | 57% |
| Map 1 Winner | 55% |
| Map 2 Winner | 55% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 49% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 48% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: ONSIDE GAMING (-2.5) vs Team Secret (+2.5) | 43% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ONSIDE GAMING (-2.5) vs Team Secret (+2.5) | 42% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 38% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 38% |
| Map Handicap: OSG (-1.5) vs Team Secret (+1.5) | 30% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 24% |
Market context
Market consensus: 76% chance of valorant: onside gaming vs team secret (bo3) - vct pacific play-in. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant Lower bracket round 1 match between ONSIDE GAMING and Team Secret in the VCT Pacific Play-In, initially scheduled for August 19, 2026 at 4:00 AM …
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs Team Secret (BO3) - VCT Pacific Play-In. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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