Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
98% | 2% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
98% | 2% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| A'ja Wilson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 98% |
| A'ja Wilson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 86% |
| O/U 176.5 | 69% |
| O/U 175.5 | 67% |
| Carla Leite: Points O/U 14.5 | 63% |
| O/U 177.5 | 60% |
| Jackie Young: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 57% |
| O/U 178.5 | 57% |
| O/U 179.5 | 56% |
| Spread -11.5 | 54% |
| Jackie Young: Points O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Chelsea Gray: Points O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| A'ja Wilson: Assists O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Megan DiLeo: Points O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Megan DiLeo: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Megan DiLeo: Points O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| A'ja Wilson: Points O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| NaLyssa Smith: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Chelsea Gray: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Carla Leite: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Chelsea Gray: Assists O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Carla Leite: Points O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| A'ja Wilson: Points O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| NaLyssa Smith: Points O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Carla Leite: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Carla Leite: Assists O/U 6.5 | 21% |
| Jackie Young: Assists O/U 6.5 | 18% |
| PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas Aces | 7% |
| NaLyssa Smith: Points O/U 10.5 | 5% |
Market context
The PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas Aces prediction market currently prices this outcome at 98% YES. In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for July 28 at 10:00PM ET: If the PortlandFire win, the market will resolve to "PortlandFire". If the Las Vegas Aces win, the market will resolve to "Las Vegas Ace…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $203K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas Aces. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
Trade PortlandFire vs. Las Vegas Aces on March Madness Predictions
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