Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
60% | 40% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
60% | 40% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 183.5 | 60% |
| O/U 184.5 | 56% |
| O/U 185.5 | 55% |
| Spread -12.5 | 54% |
| O/U 186.5 | 53% |
| Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| O/U 187.5 | 49% |
| Marina Mabrey: Points O/U 17.5 | 47% |
| Jordin Canada: Assists O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| Angel Reese: Assists O/U 2.5 | 46% |
| Jordin Canada: Assists O/U 6.5 | 42% |
| Allisha Gray: Points O/U 17.5 | 39% |
| Angel Reese: Points O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| Allisha Gray: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Marina Mabrey: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Nyara Sabally: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Marina Mabrey: Assists O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Marina Mabrey: Points O/U 16.5 | 28% |
| Rhyne Howard: Points O/U 17.5 | 27% |
| Nyara Sabally: Points O/U 14.5 | 26% |
| Angel Reese: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 26% |
| Rhyne Howard: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| Angel Reese: Points O/U 15.5 | 26% |
| Nyara Sabally: Points O/U 13.5 | 26% |
| Allisha Gray: Points O/U 18.5 | 26% |
| Jordin Canada: Assists O/U 8.5 | 26% |
| Jordin Canada: Points O/U 10.5 | 25% |
| Rhyne Howard: Assists O/U 3.5 | 25% |
| Allisha Gray: Assists O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Jordin Canada: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 24% |
| Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream | 14% |
Market context
Toronto Tempo play the Atlanta Dream in Atlanta on 10 August, with the market priced as a clear underdog spot for Toronto at 14% YES. That lines up with the wider shape of the matchup: recent listings have had Atlanta installed as a sizeable favourite, including a -13.5 spread and a moneyline around -781 on one board, while Toronto’s price has sat well into plus-money territory.[13]
The historical frame is straightforward: when these teams have met this season, Atlanta has already shown the ability to separate late, beating Toronto 94-87 on 22 June behind 20 points from Rhyne Howard and 18 each from Allisha Gray and Madina Okot.[15] Earlier summer pricing also treated Atlanta as the stronger side, with June and July lines ranging from Dream -6.5 to -8.5 and moneylines from -270 to -410, which suggests the current 14% implies Toronto need either a genuine form swing or a disruption to the usual team-strength gap.[4][6]
For traders, the key catalysts are late injury and availability news, starting line-up confirmation, and any schedule-related fatigue or travel context before tip-off. The game is listed for 8:00 pm ET at Gateway Centre in College Park, and current odds feeds still show Atlanta as the dominant side, so any unexpected absence from the Dream’s main scorers or a meaningful Toronto rotation change would be the most direct way for the price to move.[8][13] A separate overtime market has also been posted for this same game, which matters because the settlement follows the final score after any extra periods.[14]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $54K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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