World Cup Group G Winner

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup Group G has already concluded, with Belgium crowned the winner after advancing to the Round of 32 alongside Egypt, while Iran finished third and New Zealand placed fourth[1]. This outcome renders the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any other team entirely logical, as the group stage matches took place between 15 and 26 June 2026, well before the settlement window closes[1]. Historical precedents from the 2018 and 2022 tournaments show that group winners are rarely overturned post-match, with only four instances across those cycles where a team won by four goals or more, underscoring the stability of such results[9].

Traders should note that the primary resolution source is official FIFA data, which has already confirmed Belgium as the group winner[1][7]. No further announcements, schedule changes, or coaching updates will alter this result, as the group stage is complete and the tiebreaker procedures have been applied[3][4]. The only remaining dependency is whether the group stage was cancelled or postponed after 30 September 2026, which did not occur, making the “Other” outcome irrelevant[1]. Recent beat reporting from MLS Soccer confirms Belgium’s status as a top-10 ranked team expected to contend for the top spot, a prediction that materialised fully[2]. With all matches played at SoFi Stadium, Lumen Field, and BC Place, and results finalised, the market is effectively settled[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.