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Worlds 2026: Winner

How the sports market is pricing "Worlds 2026: Winner" right now — live quote plus platform comparison.

Team G 50% Team H 50% Team I 50% Other 50% Volume: $99K Liquidity: $284K Closes: 29 Nov 2026
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Worlds 2026: Winner

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 50% 50% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 50% 50% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Team G50%
Team H50%
Team I50%
Other50%
Gen.G35%
Bilibili Gaming20%
T118%
Hanwha Life Esports16%
G2 Esports6%
Karmine Corp5%
Dplus KIA3%
Anyone's Legend3%
Invictus Gaming2%
Top Esports1%
Team Secret Whales0%
CTBC Flying Oyster0%
MVK Esports0%
Movistar KOI0%
Cloud90%
Team Liquid0%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, worlds 2026: winner stands at 50% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 League of Legends World Championship (Worlds 2026), currently scheduled for October 15 to November 14, 2026. If this t…

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Worlds 2026: Winner. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Chris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting EditorandMaya TorresMaya TorresFinancial Markets Writer

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