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LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Sports snapshot for "LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs" with league data and platform comparison on a single page.

Match Winner 95% Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5) 88% Game 1 Winner 84% Game 2 Winner 83% Volume: $127K Liquidity: $344K Closes: 6 Jul 2026
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LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 95% 5% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 95% 5% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner95%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5)88%
Game 1 Winner84%
Game 2 Winner83%
Game 3 Winner83%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?73%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?70%
Game 4 Winner64%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?62%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?62%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?62%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5)61%
First Blood in Game 2?59%
First Blood in Game 3?59%
First Blood in Game 1?59%
First Blood in Game 4?54%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?54%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?53%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon51%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Any Player Penta Kill51%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors49%
Any Player Penta Kill49%
Any Player Penta Kill49%
Any Player Penta Kill49%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon49%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon48%
O/U 3.5 Games40%
O/U 4.5 Games10%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 95% probability to lol: bilibili gaming vs lyon (bo5) - mid-season invitational playoffs. This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between Bilibili Gaming and LYON in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 5 at 11:00PM ET. This market will …

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Chris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting EditorandMaya TorresMaya TorresFinancial Markets Writer

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