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LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

How the sports market is pricing "LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs" right now — live quote plus platform comparison.

Both Teams Slay a Dragon 78% O/U 3.5 Games 73% Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? 64% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 61% Volume: $302K Liquidity: $428K Closes: 4 Jul 2026
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LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 78% 22% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 78% 22% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Both Teams Slay a Dragon78%
O/U 3.5 Games73%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?64%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon61%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon61%
Odd/Even Total Kills56%
Odd/Even Total Kills56%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?56%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?56%
Odd/Even Total Kills54%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Any Player Penta Kill51%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
First Blood in Game 3?50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
First Blood in Game 4?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?50%
Game 4 Winner49%
First Blood in Game 1?49%
Game 1 Winner48%
Game 2 Winner48%
Game 3 Winner48%
Match Winner46%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon46%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon45%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?40%
Any Player Quadra Kill38%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor38%
Any Player Quadra Kill38%
O/U 4.5 Games37%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+1.5)37%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor37%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors36%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors36%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?36%
Any Player Penta Kill34%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?34%
Any Player Quadra Kill21%
Any Player Penta Kill21%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor20%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+2.5)17%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors11%
Any Player Penta Kill6%

Market context

The LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs prediction market currently prices this outcome at 78% YES. This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket quarterfinal 1 match between Bilibili Gaming and T1 in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 4 at 4:00AM ET. This market will …

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Chris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting EditorandMaya TorresMaya TorresFinancial Markets Writer

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