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LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs

How the sports market is pricing "LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs" right now — live quote plus platform comparison.

Match Winner 90% Game 1 Winner 76% Game 2 Winner 76% Game 3 Winner 76% Volume: $95K Liquidity: $377K Closes: 27 Sept 2026
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LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 90% 10% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 90% 10% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner90%
Game 1 Winner76%
Game 2 Winner76%
Game 3 Winner76%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)76%
Game 4 Winner59%
O/U 3.5 Games55%
First Blood in Game 2?54%
Any Player Penta Kill52%
First Blood in Game 4?52%
First Blood in Game 3?52%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?52%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?51%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3?51%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 4?51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
First Blood in Game 1?50%
Odd/Even Total Kills49%
Odd/Even Total Kills49%
Odd/Even Total Kills49%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?48%
Odd/Even Total Kills47%
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+2.5)45%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?45%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?44%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?31%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
O/U 4.5 Games20%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 90% YES probability for LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between LYON and Shopify Rebellion in the LCS Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 26, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. This market will resolve …

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Chris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting EditorandMaya TorresMaya TorresFinancial Markets Writer

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