Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
81% | 19% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
81% | 19% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 81% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 69% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 65% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 | 60% |
| O/U 8.5 | 56% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 54% |
| NRFI | 52% |
| O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles | 45% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 35% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 24% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 | 13% |
| Extra Innings | 7% |
Market context
Market consensus: 81% chance of chicago white sox vs. baltimore orioles. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago White Sox and Baltimore Orioles, scheduled for June 29 at 6:35PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox" if the Chicago Wh…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $286K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Trade Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles on March Madness Predictions
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