Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
50% | 50% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
50% | 50% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Team A | 50% |
| Team B | 50% |
| Team C | 50% |
| Team D | 50% |
| Team E | 50% |
| Other | 50% |
| Chicago White Sox | 37% |
| Cleveland Guardians | 37% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 37% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 37% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 37% |
| Washington Nationals | 37% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 36% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 36% |
| Houston Astros | 36% |
| Miami Marlins | 36% |
| Seattle Mariners | 32% |
| Atlanta Braves | 31% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 6% |
| Colorado Rockies | 3% |
| Kansas City Royals | 3% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 3% |
| New York Yankees | 3% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 3% |
| Texas Rangers | 3% |
| Boston Red Sox | 2% |
| Chicago Cubs | 2% |
| Minnesota Twins | 2% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 2% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 1% |
| Detroit Tigers | 1% |
| New York Mets | 1% |
| Athletics | 1% |
| San Diego Padres | 1% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 1% |
| San Francisco Giants | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 50% chance of mlb: highest abs challenge success rate (team). Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market will resolve according to the team that records the highest ABS challenge won% during the 2026 MLB Regular Season. If two teams tie for the highest ABS challenge won%,…
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for MLB: Highest ABS Challenge Success Rate (Team). Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Trade MLB: Highest ABS Challenge Success Rate (Team) on March Madness Predictions
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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