🎁 New traders: 100% Deposit Match up to $500 · 0% fees · instant USDC payoutsClaim it →
HomeGuideCryptoMarketsBlogSee live odds →

MLB: Home Runs Leader

Sports snapshot for "MLB: Home Runs Leader" with league data and platform comparison on a single page.

Kyle Schwarber 48% Yordan Alvarez 21% Junior Caminero 16% Shea Langeliers 5% Volume: $714K Liquidity: $32K Closes: 28 Sept 2026
Open live market →
MLB: Home Runs Leader

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 48% 52% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 48% 52% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Kyle Schwarber48%
Yordan Alvarez21%
Junior Caminero16%
Shea Langeliers5%
Munetaka Murakami2%
Elly De La Cruz2%
Aaron Judge1%
Shohei Ohtani1%
Nick Kurtz1%
Matt Olson1%
James Wood1%
Ben Rice1%
Cal Raleigh0%
Eugenio Suarez0%
Juan Soto0%
Pete Alonso0%
Rafael Devers0%
George Springer0%
Giancarlo Stanton0%
Mike Trout0%
Manny Machado0%
Jordan Walker0%
Brandon Lowe0%
Sal Stewart0%
CJ Abrams0%
Player A0%
Player B0%
Player C0%
Player D0%
Player E0%
Player F0%
Player G0%
Player H0%
Player I0%
Player J0%
Player K0%
Player L0%
Player M0%
Player N0%
Player O0%
Player P0%
Player Q0%
Player R0%
Player S0%
Player T0%
Player U0%
Player V0%
Player W0%
Player X0%
Player Y0%
Player Z0%
Player AA0%
Player AB0%
Player AC0%
Player AD0%
Player AE0%
Player AF0%
Player AG0%
Player AH0%
Player AI0%
Player AJ0%
Player AK0%
Player AL0%
Player AM0%
Player AN0%
Player AO0%
Player AP0%
Player AQ0%
Player AR0%
Player AS0%
Player AT0%
Player AU0%
Player AV0%
Player AW0%
Player AX0%
Player AY0%
Player AZ0%
Player BA0%
Player BB0%
Player BC0%
Player BD0%
Player BE0%
Player BF0%
Player BG0%
Player BH0%
Player BI0%
Player BJ0%
Player BK0%
Player BL0%
Player BM0%
Player BN0%
Player BO0%
Player BP0%
Player BQ0%
Player BR0%
Player BS0%
Player BT0%
Player BU0%
Player BV0%
Player BW0%
Player BX0%
Other0%

Market context

MLB: Home Runs Leader — current market-implied probability: 48%. This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the …

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for MLB: Home Runs Leader. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Chris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting EditorandMaya TorresMaya TorresFinancial Markets Writer

Trade MLB: Home Runs Leader on March Madness Predictions

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

Open live market →

Related live markets

More live prediction markets from our tracker — every trade button routes to March Madness Predictions.

See all markets →