Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
78% | 22% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
78% | 22% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 78% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 63% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| NRFI | 50% |
| O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays | 46% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 41% |
| Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 30% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| Extra Innings | 7% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 78% probability to new york mets vs. toronto blue jays. In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Mets and Toronto Blue Jays, scheduled for June 29 at 7:07PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Mets" if the New York Mets win the game. This mark…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $169K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
Trade New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays on March Madness Predictions
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →