Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
40% | 60% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
40% | 60% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 40% |
| New York Yankees | 10% |
| Boston Red Sox | 8% |
| Atlanta Braves | 8% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 8% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 7% |
| Chicago Cubs | 6% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 4% |
| Chicago White Sox | 2% |
| Detroit Tigers | 2% |
| Houston Astros | 2% |
| Seattle Mariners | 2% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 2% |
| Cleveland Guardians | 1% |
| Texas Rangers | 1% |
| San Diego Padres | 1% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 0% |
| Minnesota Twins | 0% |
| Kansas City Royals | 0% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 0% |
| Athletics | 0% |
| New York Mets | 0% |
| Miami Marlins | 0% |
| Washington Nationals | 0% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 0% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 0% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0% |
| San Francisco Giants | 0% |
| Colorado Rockies | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
MLB World Series Champion 2026 — current market-implied probability: 40%. This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLB World Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLB World Series per the rules of MLB (e.g…
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for MLB World Series Champion 2026. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade MLB World Series Champion 2026 on March Madness Predictions
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