Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
79% | 21% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
79% | 21% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 221.5 | 79% |
| O/U 224.5 | 74% |
| O/U 227.5 | 69% |
| O/U 230.5 | 61% |
| O/U 232.5 | 57% |
| Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| O/U 233.5 | 55% |
| Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| Spread: 76ers (-2.5) | 54% |
| O/U 234.5 | 53% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 53% |
| O/U 235.5 | 52% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 19.5 | 52% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 4.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 52% |
| Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 114.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| Cavaliers vs. 76ers: O/U 236.5 | 48% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 5.5 | 47% |
| Spread -4.5 | 46% |
| O/U 237.5 | 46% |
| O/U 238.5 | 44% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 44% |
| Spread -5.5 | 43% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 43% |
| Cavaliers vs. 76ers | 42% |
| Spread -6.5 | 40% |
| O/U 240.5 | 40% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 4.5 | 39% |
| Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| O/U 243.5 | 34% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 22.5 | 33% |
| LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 33% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 33% |
| Spread -8.5 | 32% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 22.5 | 32% |
| LeBron James: Points O/U 15.5 | 31% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Points O/U 10.5 | 31% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Assists O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Spread -4.5 | 30% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5 | 30% |
| O/U 246.5 | 28% |
| Spread -11.5 | 25% |
| Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| O/U 249.5 | 23% |
| Spread -14.5 | 19% |
| Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| Spread -17.5 | 13% |
Market context
Cavaliers vs. 76ers — current market-implied probability: 79%. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 22 at 7:00PM ET: If the Cavaliers win, the market will resolve to "Cavaliers". If the 76ers win, the market will resolve to "76ers". If the game is post…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $95K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Cavaliers vs. 76ers. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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