Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
83% | 17% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
83% | 17% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 211.5 | 83% |
| O/U 214.5 | 77% |
| O/U 217.5 | 73% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 71% |
| O/U 220.5 | 66% |
| O/U 222.5 | 62% |
| Spread -2.5 | 60% |
| O/U 223.5 | 59% |
| O/U 225.5 | 56% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 4.5 | 55% |
| Spread -4.5 | 54% |
| O/U 226.5 | 54% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 53% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 53% |
| O/U 227.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| O/U 228.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Kevin Durant: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Alperen Sengün: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Alperen Sengün: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Amen Thompson: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Amen Thompson: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Amen Thompson: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Alperen Sengün: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Alperen Sengün: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| Kevin Durant: Assists O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 17.5 | 48% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 48% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 47% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Spread -6.5 | 46% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 46% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 46% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Steals O/U 2.5 | 46% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| O/U 230.5 | 44% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 4.5 | 44% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 43% |
| Spread -7.5 | 42% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 41% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 19.5 | 41% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 14.5 | 40% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 19.5 | 39% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| O/U 233.5 | 38% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 38% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Marcus Smart: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Spread -9.5 | 37% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 37% |
| Rockets vs. Spurs | 36% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 36% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5 | 35% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5 | 35% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 9.5 | 35% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 5.5 | 35% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5 | 34% |
| Devin Vassell: Assists O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Marcus Smart: Assists O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Spread -10.5 | 33% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 23.5 | 33% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 16.5 | 33% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 14.5 | 33% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 | 33% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 5.5 | 33% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 | 32% |
| Fred VanVleet: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 32% |
| Devin Vassell: Assists O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| O/U 236.5 | 31% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 15.5 | 31% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 31% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 30% |
| Spread -12.5 | 28% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 | 28% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 | 28% |
| Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 18.5 | 27% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 19.5 | 27% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 24.5 | 27% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| O/U 239.5 | 26% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5 | 26% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 29.5 | 26% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 26% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| Marcus Smart: Assists O/U 2.5 | 26% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 9.5 | 24% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Marcus Smart: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 19.5 | 23% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 23% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 4.5 | 23% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 23% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| Spread -15.5 | 22% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| Fred VanVleet: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 21% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 14.5 | 20% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Steals O/U 1.5 | 18% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 29.5 | 17% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 17% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 17% |
| Spread -18.5 | 16% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 29.5 | 16% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 16% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 16% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 24.5 | 12% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 14.5 | 12% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 11% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 11% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 11.5 | 11% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 34.5 | 10% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 39.5 | 10% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 39.5 | 9% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 9% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 24.5 | 8% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 83% YES probability for Rockets vs. Spurs. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 9:30PM ET: If the Rockets win, the market will resolve to "Rockets". If the Spurs win, the market will resolve to "Spurs". If the game is postpone…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $93K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Rockets vs. Spurs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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