Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 97% |
| O/U 26.5 | 97% |
| O/U 32.5 | 96% |
| O/U 34.5 | 94% |
| O/U 30.5 | 93% |
| O/U 36.5 | 93% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 93% |
| Bills O/U 12.5 | 93% |
| Bills O/U 13.5 | 93% |
| Bills O/U 16.5 | 93% |
| Raiders O/U 10.5 | 93% |
| Raiders O/U 12.5 | 93% |
| O/U 28.5 | 92% |
| Bills O/U 10.5 | 92% |
| Bills O/U 19.5 | 92% |
| Raiders O/U 13.5 | 92% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 90% |
| Bills O/U 20.5 | 89% |
| O/U 38.5 | 88% |
| Raiders O/U 16.5 | 88% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 87% |
| O/U 40.5 | 84% |
| O/U 42.5 | 81% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 80% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| Bills O/U 23.5 | 78% |
| O/U 44.5 | 76% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 73% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 73% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 72% |
| Raiders O/U 19.5 | 72% |
| O/U 46.5 | 71% |
| Bills vs. Raiders | 69% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 69% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 69% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 69% |
| O/U 48.5 | 66% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 66% |
| Bills O/U 26.5 | 66% |
| Raiders O/U 20.5 | 66% |
| Spread -1.5 | 65% |
| 1H Moneyline | 64% |
| Spread -2.5 | 63% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 63% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 63% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 62% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 62% |
| O/U 50.5 | 61% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 6.5 | 61% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 61% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 60% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 60% |
| Bills O/U 27.5 | 59% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 58% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 57% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 57% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 56% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 56% |
| Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| O/U 52.5 | 55% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 55% |
| Bills 1H O/U 12.5 | 55% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 54% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 54% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 54% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 54% |
| Raiders O/U 23.5 | 54% |
| Bills 1H O/U 6.5 | 54% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 54% |
| Bills 1H O/U 10.5 | 53% |
| Spread -4.5 | 52% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 52% |
| Bills 1H O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Bills 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bills 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bills 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 21+ | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Bills Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Raiders Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bills vs. Raiders: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Bills Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Raiders Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| O/U 54.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 49% |
| Spread -5.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| Bills O/U 30.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 1-6 | 48% |
| Safety? | 48% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 47% |
| Bills 1H O/U 20.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 46% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 12.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 45% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 45% |
| Spread -6.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 44% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 1-6 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 43% |
| O/U 56.5 | 42% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 42% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 41% |
| Raiders O/U 26.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 17.5 | 40% |
| Spread -7.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 38% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| O/U 58.5 | 37% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 36% |
| Spread -8.5 | 35% |
| Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| Raiders O/U 27.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| Spread -10.5 | 32% |
| O/U 60.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 30% |
| Spread -1.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 29% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 29% |
| Spread -20.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Bills O/U 34.5 | 28% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 20.5 | 28% |
| Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| Spread -19.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 26% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 16.5 | 26% |
| O/U 62.5 | 25% |
| Spread -13.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 23% |
| Raiders O/U 30.5 | 23% |
| O/U 64.5 | 22% |
| Spread -14.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| Spread -16.5 | 19% |
| Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| O/U 66.5 | 18% |
| Spread -4.5 | 18% |
| Spread -5.5 | 17% |
| Spread -17.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| O/U 68.5 | 15% |
| Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| Spread -19.5 | 14% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 13% |
| Spread -20.5 | 12% |
| Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| Spread -8.5 | 10% |
| Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 10% |
| Raiders O/U 34.5 | 9% |
| Spread -21.5 | 8% |
| Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| Spread -17.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Spread -13.5 | 7% |
| Spread -14.5 | 5% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 97% probability to bills vs. raiders. In the upcoming NFL football game between Bills and Raiders, scheduled for October 18 at 4:25PM ET: This market will resolve to "Bills" if Bills win the game. This market will resolve to "Raiders" if …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $290K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Bills vs. Raiders. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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