North America Regional Qualifier: Qualify to The International

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the TI 2026 North America Regional Qualifier, a Tier 1 double-elimination tournament held from 24 to 26 June 2026, featuring four teams: The Bug, GG Boom, GamerLegion, and 4 Anchors and Ilmeria. With a crowd-implied probability of 0% for a North American team qualifying for The International 2026 Group Stage, the market reflects a near-total lack of confidence in the region’s current form. Historically, North America has struggled to secure Group Stage spots in recent TI cycles, often failing to advance past regional qualifiers despite hosting events; comparable cases include TI 2024 and TI 2025, where no NA team qualified, reinforcing the pattern that the 0% probability is not an outlier but a continuation of regional underperformance.

Traders should monitor the official announcement of TI 2026 Group Stage participants, which must be published before 15 August 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as failure to do so resolves the market to “Other.” Key catalysts include roster stability for GG Boom, which features three Chinese players and a Singaporean midlaner, and the recent performance of The Bug, the only team with a consistent NA-native lineup. According to Strafe’s beat report on the TI 2026 NA qualifier schedule, GG Boom’s international-heavy roster may lack cohesion under pressure, while The Bug’s recent results suggest they are the most viable NA contender, though still unlikely to qualify. Absences or coaching changes in the final days of the qualifier could further diminish any remaining hope for a North American breakthrough.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track North America Regional Qualifier: Qualify to The International on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.