Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| IK Sirius O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| IK Sirius O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| IK Sirius 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| IK Sirius 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 95% |
| IK Sirius O/U 2.5 | 85% |
| IK Sirius (-1.5) | 84% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 77% |
| O/U 3.5 | 75% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 69% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 69% |
| IK Sirius (-2.5) | 63% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 61% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 58% |
| Halmstads BK O/U 0.5 | 57% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 57% |
| Halmstads BK O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score | 55% |
| Halmstads BK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Halmstads BK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Halmstads BK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| IK Sirius 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| IK Sirius 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 4.5 | 47% |
| Halmstads BK O/U 2.5 | 45% |
| O/U 5.5 | 27% |
| Halmstads BK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 4% |
| Halmstads BK (-1.5) | 1% |
| Halmstads BK (-2.5) | 1% |
Market context
Halmstads BK host IK Sirius in an Allsvenskan match that has attracted only a small **4% YES** price in the “More Markets” contract, which is consistent with a low-variance view of ancillary outcomes rather than a strong expectation of a specific edge. The wider match market points clearly towards Sirius: bookmakers have had the away side around 1.4 to 1.4 on the moneyline, while Halmstad have been priced out near 6.5 to 8.2, and BTTS/over-goals lines have leaned towards a relatively open game rather than a cagey one.[1][2][5]
Historical context also favours treating this as a market where the favourite’s baseline strength matters more than a single headline price. Sirius have been much shorter than Halmstad in comparable meetings, and recent public prediction models have also leaned heavily towards an away win, with some projecting a 1-3 type result; that combination usually suppresses “more markets” prices unless the trader expects a specific prop to land against the broader script.[10][14][15] In last season’s meeting, the sides drew 1-1, which is a reminder that even a clear pre-match favourite can still be held if the game state turns fragmented.[15]
The main catalysts to watch are team news and late market movement around the starting XIs, especially any confirmation of attacking absences or rotation after summer scheduling. The available pre-match pricing already suggests goals are in play, so any late absence among Sirius’ forwards or Halmstad’s defensive core would matter disproportionately for derivative markets tied to cards, corners, both-teams-to-score, or scoring intervals.[1][3][4] If beat-reporters flag a late change in shape or a surprise omission, that is the most likely trigger for a move away from the current pricing rather than broad league form alone.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Halmstads BK vs. IK Sirius - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
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