UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims)

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Market context

Eric Nolan and Farman Hasanov are set to clash tonight in Baku for a welterweight preliminary bout at UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres, with the market currently implying a 0% chance of Nolan winning. This near-zero probability mirrors historical patterns where undefeated debutants, particularly those with dominant wrestling credentials, face opponents returning from recent octagon losses. In comparable UFC cases, fighters like Hasanov—who brings relentless pressure and a 5-0 record—have consistently overwhelmed opponents such as Nolan, who is making his promotional debut after a loss in his first fight. The betting favourite status of Hasanov at -180 odds, contrasted with Nolan’s +145 underdog tag, reinforces the consensus that Hasanov’s skill set is likely to dictate the outcome[1][8].

Traders should monitor the official UFC results feed for the fight’s conclusion, which begins at 1:00 PM UTC today, and watch for any post-fight announcements regarding technical draws or no-contest rulings that could shift the market to a 50-50 resolution. The settlement window closes on 28 June 2026, so any delays beyond 11 July 2026 would also trigger the draw outcome. Recent beat reports from SportsBetMGM highlight Hasanov’s wrestling as the decisive catalyst, noting that his ability to secure holds will likely trouble Nolan once the fight progresses[1]. With the fight classified as a prelim, timing of the official result announcement may vary slightly, but the resolution source remains strictly official UFC information[3][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.