Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
71% | 29% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
71% | 29% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun | 71% |
| Spread -5.5 | 56% |
| Leïla Lacan: Assists O/U 4.5 | 56% |
| O/U 172.5 | 54% |
| Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| O/U 174.5 | 49% |
| Kelsey Plum: Points O/U 17.5 | 46% |
| Leïla Lacan: Points O/U 12.5 | 40% |
| Diamond Miller: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| Diamond Miller: Points O/U 11.5 | 32% |
| Kahleah Copper: Assists O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| Kelsey Plum: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| DeWanna Bonner: Points O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| DeWanna Bonner: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 28% |
| Kahleah Copper: Points O/U 20.5 | 27% |
| Kelsey Plum: Assists O/U 4.5 | 27% |
| Kelsey Plum: Points O/U 18.5 | 26% |
| Alyssa Thomas: Points O/U 15.5 | 25% |
| Alyssa Thomas: Assists O/U 8.5 | 25% |
| Alyssa Thomas: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 23% |
| Leïla Lacan: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| Kahleah Copper: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 22% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 71% probability to phoenix mercury vs. connecticut sun. In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for August 7 at 7:30PM ET: If the Phoenix Mercury win, the market will resolve to "Phoenix Mercury". If the Connecticut Sun win, the market will resolve to "Connec…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $113K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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Trade Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun on March Madness Predictions
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