Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are currently struggling to pass through the Strait of Hormuz at pre-conflict volumes, with the seven-day moving average of daily transit calls hovering near 13, far below the 60 required for this market to resolve "Yes"[5]. Historical data shows that before the regional escalation, the strait regularly handled 75 to 125 calls per day, meaning the current traffic is roughly one-fifth of normal levels[7]. Comparable cases from the Suez Canal suggest that when geopolitical strikes against shipping increase, recovery to baseline volumes is slow and often stalled by persistent security threats, framing the 68% crowd probability as optimistic given the current deficit[1].

Traders must monitor announcements regarding US military strikes against Iranian-backed Houthi forces in Yemen, as these operations directly influence the frequency of attacks on commercial vessels in the region[1]. The settlement depends entirely on IMF PortWatch publishing a seven-day moving average reaching 60, a threshold that requires traffic to surge nearly five times its current rate before the July 31 deadline[7]. Key dependencies include any potential ceasefire extensions in Gaza or shifts in Houthi attack patterns, which could abruptly alter transit safety and volume, though recent reports indicate the group has resumed targeting "Israeli vessels" after a pause[1]. Without a significant de-escalation in maritime hostilities, the probability of reaching the target remains low despite the market's current pricing.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.