What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?

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Market context

The United States and Iran have signed a framework deal to end their conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, yet the critical question of uranium enrichment remains unresolved. While President Trump claims Tehran will dispose of its highly enriched uranium, Iranian officials firmly deny any agreement on transferring nuclear material, creating a stark contradiction between the two sides. The deal, set for formal signing this Friday, hinges on further negotiations over the nuclear programme, with no clarity on whether Iran will accept a permanent halt or a temporary suspension of enrichment.

Historically, this scenario mirrors the 2015 Obama-era agreement, which Trump later abandoned, and the 2025 maximum pressure campaign that demanded Iran fully dismantle its nuclear facilities. Previous US preconditions included delivering 400kg of enriched uranium to Washington and halting all enrichment, but Iran has consistently rejected such terms, insisting on sanctions relief and access to frozen assets as non-negotiable. The current 100% market probability assumes US acceptance of continued enrichment, yet Trump’s recent shift to accepting a 20-year moratorium—rather than a permanent ban—suggests a potential compromise that Iran has already rejected, leaving the final outcome uncertain.

Traders must watch for the formal signing of the deal this Friday and any subsequent announcements on nuclear stockpile disposal, as these will determine whether the US accepts continued enrichment. Key dependencies include Iran’s willingness to surrender its 440.9kg of 60%-pure uranium and the US stance on Russia’s proposed plan to custody and convert the material into civilian fuel, which Washington has reportedly rejected. Recent reports from the BBC and Wall Street Journal highlight that sides remain far from a deal, with Trump threatening military action if negotiations fail to secure the nuclear stockpile, making the next 60 days of negotiations critical for resolving the market.

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Methodology

This page reviews What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

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