Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Hagen: Tom Gentzsch vs Jerome Kym | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Hagen: Tom Gentzsch vs Jerome Kym Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Hagen: Tom Gentzsch vs Jerome Kym Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Hagen: Tom Gentzsch vs Jerome Kym Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Hagen: Tom Gentzsch vs Jerome Kym Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Hagen: Tom Gentzsch vs Jerome Kym Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Hagen: Tom Gentzsch vs Jerome Kym Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Hagen: Tom Gentzsch vs Jerome Kym Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Hagen: Tom Gentzsch vs Jerome Kym Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Hagen: Tom Gentzsch vs Jerome Kym Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Hagen: Tom Gentzsch vs Jerome Kym Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Hagen: Tom Gentzsch vs Jerome Kym Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Hagen: Tom Gentzsch vs Jerome Kym Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Hagen: Tom Gentzsch vs Jerome Kym Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Hagen: Tom Gentzsch vs Jerome Kym Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Tom Gentzsch and Jerome Kym are meeting in Hagen on clay, with the market effectively treating Gentzsch as a near-certainty to advance after their most recent meeting at Roland Garros qualifying, where he won 6-2, 6-3. The broader head-to-head also leans his way on the clay sample available, with Gentzsch leading the series 2-1 across tracked results and having taken the last encounter in straight sets.[2][4][10]
That probability is easier to understand when set against recent form. Gentzsch has put together a strong Hagen run, beating Monteiro, Tseng, Squire and Piros to reach the final, while one stats feed also lists him as having won five of his last six matches.[16][15] Kym’s recent benchmark is thinner in the public data, and the only clear comparable between them remains the French Open qualifying loss, which suggests the current price is anchored more in recent clay results and matchup history than in a broader season-long gap.[2][7][18]
For traders, the main catalysts are confirmation of whether the final is played as scheduled and whether either player is carrying any late physical issue after the tournament’s compressed schedule. Tennis markets can still flip to a tie if a match is cancelled, delayed beyond the settlement window, or never reaches a completed result under the market rules, so late order-of-play changes and retirement risk matter more than usual even when one side is heavily favoured.[16][9]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Hagen: Tom Gentzsch vs Jerome Kym. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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