Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Brownsburg: Andre Ilagan vs Jack Pinnington Jones | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Brownsburg: Andre Ilagan vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Brownsburg: Andre Ilagan vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Brownsburg: Andre Ilagan vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Brownsburg: Andre Ilagan vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Brownsburg: Andre Ilagan vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Brownsburg: Andre Ilagan vs Jack Pinnington Jones Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Brownsburg: Andre Ilagan vs Jack Pinnington Jones Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Brownsburg: Andre Ilagan vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Brownsburg: Andre Ilagan vs Jack Pinnington Jones Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Brownsburg: Andre Ilagan vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Brownsburg: Andre Ilagan vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Brownsburg: Andre Ilagan vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Brownsburg: Andre Ilagan vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Brownsburg: Andre Ilagan vs Jack Pinnington Jones Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Andre Ilagan and Jack Pinnington Jones are scheduled to meet in Brownsburg on 15 August 2026 at 5:30PM ET. The match forms part of the professional tennis calendar, with the settlement window extending to 22 August to account for potential scheduling shifts. The 100% crowd-implied probability suggests market participants expect the fixture to proceed and produce a decisive result.
Historical precedent for matches between lower-ranked professionals shows that cancellations or no-contests remain uncommon once fixtures reach scheduled status within a fortnight of play. Comparable ITF and Challenger-level events demonstrate completion rates exceeding 95% when matches are formally announced and venue logistics confirmed. The seven-day grace period built into the resolution criteria reflects standard industry practice for weather delays and minor scheduling adjustments at regional tournaments.
Traders should monitor official tournament communications from the Brownsburg venue for any withdrawal announcements from either player, particularly regarding injury status or competing commitments. Fixture confirmation typically arrives 48–72 hours before play. Weather forecasts for the Brownsburg region during mid-August should be tracked, though outdoor cancellations at this stage of the season remain statistically unlikely. Any coaching changes or recent form shifts for either player would be documented through ATP or ITF official channels, though such developments rarely alter match completion probabilities at this level.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Brownsburg: Andre Ilagan vs Jack Pinnington Jones. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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