National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Corentin Moutet

Platform comparison

Market context

Rafael Jodar’s meeting with Corentin Moutet at the National Bank Open is a first-time ATP-level matchup, so the market is being priced off relative form rather than any direct history. That matters because the data point most similar to a head-to-head is the gap in 2026 results: Tennis.com lists Jodar at ATP No. 15 with an 81% projected win chance, while Moutet is ATP No. 59 and marked at 19% for the match, despite Moutet having the better tour pedigree and a career-high ranking of No. 31.[10][15]

The broader form profile still leans towards Jodar. Season and recent-match data from third-party tennis stat sites show Jodar with a stronger 2026 win rate and better hard-court numbers, while Moutet’s season has been more uneven, with a lower overall match win percentage and poorer hard-court returns by comparison.[2][3] Comparable cases in ATP hard-court events usually reward the player with the cleaner recent results when there is no head-to-head to anchor expectations, which helps explain why the crowd-implied 73% yes price is close to the market’s own projection rather than an obvious outlier.[1][10]

For traders, the key catalysts are straightforward: the match status itself, the confirmed starting time, and any late withdrawal or scheduling change before the settlement window closes. Tennis-specific markets can flip if a match is not played, is delayed beyond seven days, or starts but is not completed under the market rules, so pre-match lineup confirmation matters as much as form.[4] If the draw order or court assignment changes again, or if either player is reported as a medical scratch, the probability should move quickly because the market resolves on advancement, not simply on being listed to play.[4][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Corentin Moutet. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.