Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Swiss Open: Jerome Kym vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Swiss Open: Jerome Kym vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Swiss Open: Jerome Kym vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Swiss Open: Jerome Kym vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Swiss Open: Jerome Kym vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Swiss Open: Jerome Kym vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Swiss Open: Jerome Kym vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5 | 99% |
| Completed Match | 76% |
| Swiss Open: Jerome Kym vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 21.5 | 75% |
| Swiss Open: Jerome Kym vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 75% |
| Swiss Open: Jerome Kym vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 23.5 | 75% |
| Swiss Open: Jerome Kym vs Stefanos Tsitsipas | 42% |
| Swiss Open: Jerome Kym vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 25% |
| Swiss Open: Jerome Kym vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 13% |
| Swiss Open: Jerome Kym vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Swiss Open: Jerome Kym vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Jerome Kym faces Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Swiss Open on 15 July 2026, with the market pricing a 36% chance that the Swiss qualifier advances past the Greek star. Kym, who qualified for his first Grand Slam main draw at the 2025 US Open, defeated Ethan Quinn for his maiden major win and pushed past 30th seed Brandon Nakashima in five sets to reach a third round for the first time before losing to Taylor Fritz[1]. This trajectory mirrors recent cases where unranked qualifiers, buoyed by a breakthrough major performance, briefly outperform established top-20 players on home soil, though Tsitsipas’s experience on European clay typically narrows such gaps.
Traders should monitor Kym’s recent match load and any coaching adjustments ahead of the tie, as fatigue from his US Open run could influence his stamina in a potential long contest. The Swiss Open schedule lists the match at 4:00 AM ET, and any delay beyond seven days without a winner triggers a 50-50 settlement, making weather and court conditions critical dependencies. No recent beat-reporter updates on coaching changes or absences have emerged, but the ATP’s official tournament page remains the primary source for live scheduling confirmations and player status announcements.
Sources: 1
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Swiss Open: Jerome Kym vs Stefanos Tsitsipas. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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