Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open: Ashlyn Krueger vs Lois Boisson Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open: Ashlyn Krueger vs Lois Boisson | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open: Ashlyn Krueger vs Lois Boisson Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open: Ashlyn Krueger vs Lois Boisson Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open: Ashlyn Krueger vs Lois Boisson Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open: Ashlyn Krueger vs Lois Boisson Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open: Ashlyn Krueger vs Lois Boisson Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open: Ashlyn Krueger vs Lois Boisson Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open: Ashlyn Krueger vs Lois Boisson Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open: Ashlyn Krueger vs Lois Boisson Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open: Ashlyn Krueger vs Lois Boisson Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open: Ashlyn Krueger vs Lois Boisson Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open: Ashlyn Krueger vs Lois Boisson Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open: Ashlyn Krueger vs Lois Boisson Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Ashlyn Krueger and Lois Boisson are scheduled to meet in the opening round of the Cincinnati Open on 13 August 2026. Krueger, a 24-year-old American, has competed primarily on the ITF circuit and lower-tier WTA events, whilst Boisson, a 26-year-old French player, holds a similar profile with recent appearances in qualifying draws at major tournaments. The 0% crowd probability reflects substantial uncertainty about both players' current form and fitness heading into the event, with limited recent match data available for either competitor at this stage of the season.
Historical precedent suggests early-round WTA matches involving players ranked outside the top 100 often hinge on surface familiarity and recent match rhythm rather than raw ranking points. Krueger's hard-court record in North America typically outperforms her clay-court results, whilst Boisson has shown inconsistency across surfaces. The Cincinnati hard courts favour aggressive baseline play, a strength Krueger has demonstrated in previous qualifying rounds, though neither player has established a decisive head-to-head record that would anchor market expectations.
Traders should monitor official Cincinnati Open draw confirmations and any late withdrawals through early August, as injuries or scheduling conflicts frequently alter early-round matchups at this level. Recent WTA injury reports and ITF circuit results from July will provide the most reliable indicator of match-day fitness. The settlement window extends to 20 August, allowing seven days beyond the scheduled date for completion, which accommodates typical rain delays at the event without triggering the 50-50 resolution clause.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Cincinnati Open: Ashlyn Krueger vs Lois Boisson. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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