Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Japan Women's Open, Qualification: Mei Yamaguchi vs Sofia Kenin Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Japan Women's Open, Qualification: Mei Yamaguchi vs Sofia Kenin Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Japan Women's Open, Qualification: Mei Yamaguchi vs Sofia Kenin Game Spread +/-5.5 | 100% |
| Japan Women's Open, Qualification: Mei Yamaguchi vs Sofia Kenin | 0% |
| Japan Women's Open, Qualification: Mei Yamaguchi vs Sofia Kenin Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Japan Women's Open, Qualification: Mei Yamaguchi vs Sofia Kenin Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Japan Women's Open, Qualification: Mei Yamaguchi vs Sofia Kenin Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Japan Women's Open, Qualification: Mei Yamaguchi vs Sofia Kenin Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Japan Women's Open, Qualification: Mei Yamaguchi vs Sofia Kenin Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Japan Women's Open, Qualification: Mei Yamaguchi vs Sofia Kenin Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Japan Women's Open, Qualification: Mei Yamaguchi vs Sofia Kenin Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Japan Women's Open, Qualification: Mei Yamaguchi vs Sofia Kenin Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Japan Women's Open, Qualification: Mei Yamaguchi vs Sofia Kenin Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Japan Women's Open, Qualification: Mei Yamaguchi vs Sofia Kenin Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Japan Women's Open, Qualification: Mei Yamaguchi vs Sofia Kenin Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Japan Women's Open, Qualification: Mei Yamaguchi vs Sofia Kenin Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of japan women's open, qualification: mei yamaguchi vs sofia kenin. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Mei Yamaguchi and Sofia Kenin in the Japan Women's Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 17, 2026 at 2:00AM ET. This…
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Japan Women's Open, Qualification: Mei Yamaguchi vs Sofia Kenin. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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