Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

Platform comparison

Market context

A preliminary peace memorandum between the United States and Iran has already been electronically authorised by President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, ending a three-and-half-month conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz[1][2]. This interim accord, which includes Iran’s reaffirmation that it will not develop nuclear weapons, triggers a 60-day window to negotiate a final deal, with a ceremonial signing scheduled in Switzerland on 19 June[1][5]. Despite this progress, the market’s 3% probability reflects uncertainty over whether the listed individual will formally sign a binding written agreement by July 31, 2026, as the current memorandum remains a non-binding framework subject to further negotiation[1][3].

Historically, comparable US-Iran deals, such as the 2015 JCPOA, required years of multilateral negotiation and faced significant domestic and international hurdles before finalisation[2]. The current 60-day timeline is unusually short, and early reporting suggests Tehran may retain uranium enrichment capabilities and proxy networks, complicating the path to a definitive agreement[3]. Traders should monitor Vance’s upcoming visit to Switzerland for the ceremonial signing, any extensions to the 60-day negotiation window, and whether Iran imposes transit fees on the Strait of Hormuz after the initial period expires[1][3]. Key dependencies include the US lifting all sanctions, unfreezing Iranian assets, and the U.N. Security Council ratifying the deal’s executive mechanism[2][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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