Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol on 15 August 2026 will determine the resolution of this market, with settlement based on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The measurement will be taken in degrees Celsius and assigned to the appropriate temperature range bracket.

August temperatures in Amsterdam historically cluster in the 20–24°C range, with daily highs rarely exceeding 25°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect conditions well below the upper threshold bands available. Comparable August days at Schiphol over the past decade show that temperatures above 28°C occur in fewer than 5% of cases, whilst readings below 20°C are similarly uncommon. The modal outcome sits firmly in the low-to-mid 20s, making extreme heat scenarios unlikely unless an unusual continental air mass settles over the Netherlands in mid-August.

Traders should monitor European weather patterns from early August onwards, particularly the position of high-pressure systems and any heat domes affecting continental Europe. The Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) publishes extended forecasts approximately two weeks ahead; these will sharpen considerably in the final week before 15 August. Any sustained heat event affecting Western Europe in the days preceding the settlement date would be the primary catalyst for upward temperature movement. The specific reliance on Schiphol station data—rather than urban centre readings—means maritime influence and airport microclimates will determine the final figure, potentially moderating extremes compared to inland locations.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 15?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.